The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat in the past six months. Sweden continues to experience a mild economic downturn, but interest rate cuts are contributing to improved optimism about the future. At the same time, the uncertain global economic and geopolitical situation is leading to heightened risks, in part in the form of cyber attacks. These are the conclusions of FI’s second stability report for the year.
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
During 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) carried out a special assessment of the financial sector in Sweden, a so-called FSAP (Financial Sector Assessment Program). FSAPs are conducted regularly for member countries with systemically important financial markets. The most recent FSAP for Sweden by the IMF was in 2016.
Rising interest rates, decreased risk-taking and a slowing economy are weighing on highly indebted commercial real estate firms and households. The rapid transition to higher interest rates and a decreased willingness to take risk means financial stability risks have increased since spring. At the same time, this transition may lead to lower risk-taking and indebtedness in the long run, thus lowering stability risks.
Erik Thedéen, Director General of Finansinspektionen (FI), spoke at the Öresundsmarknaden conference about FI’s view on the commercial real estate market.
Interest rates are rising rapidly in the wake of high inflation. High interest rates and lower risk appetite are placing downward pressure on risk-taking and asset prices. In the long term, this can slow the growth of debt and benefit financial stability. However, the large debts that built up over the extended period of low interest rates are putting pressure on highly indebted households and firms.
The financial sector must quickly become better at preventing and handling cyber threats. Customers and society at large must be able to trust that the critical services offered by financial corporations will function even during periods of uncertainty and in the presence of threats. As commissioned by the government, Finansinspektionen (FI) therefore has proposed a number of measures to increase resilience to cyber attacks in the financial sector.
The economic recovery has been stronger than expected this year, in part due to strong support measures during the pandemic. At the same time, risks are building up, writes Finansinspektionen (FI) in its second stability report of the year. The report is being presented today by Director General Erik Thedéen and Chief Economist Henrik Braconier at a press conference.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will conduct a review of the financial sector and the work of the authorities on financial stability, a so-called FSAP (Financial Sector Assessment Program) in 2022. FSAPs are conducted regularly for countries with systemically important financial markets. In its report, the IMF will highlight any flaws and risks in the system and propose measures to deal with them.
The support measures have been important for offsetting the economic impact of the crisis and speeding up the recovery. However, they can also contribute to greater stability risks in the long run, concludes Finansinspektionen (FI) in this year’s first report on the stability in the financial system, which is being published today.
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